Simulation of Greenland mass balance evolution until 2100

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dc.contributor.advisor Colleoni, Florence it_IT Peano, Daniele <1987> it_IT 2015-11-26 it_IT 2016-06-30T11:35:19Z 2016-06-30T11:35:19Z 2016-02-15 it_IT
dc.description.abstract The evolution of the Greenland ice sheet mass balance has a potential impact on the regional and global climate. Moreover, the runoff from the Greenland ice sheet into the nearby ocean and its evolution are not well known, despite their potential impacts on ocean circulation. For this reason, this study investigates the evolution of Greenland mass balance and runoff during the 20th and 21st century by means of two thermo-mechanical ice sheet-ice shelves models. Transient simulations forced with the climate simulated from seven CMIP5 models, are performed, and the evolution of surface mass balance and runoff for the entire ice-sheet and for seven drainage basins are analyzed. The ability of one of the two thermo-mechanical ice sheet-ice shelves models in simulating basal melting and calving is investigated, in order to close the Greenland ice sheet mass balance. The simulated surface mass balance exhibits values in a wide range in the 20th century (362 Gt/yr to -131 Gt/yr). The simulated surface mass balance decreases in time reaching values ranging from 59 Gt/yr to -436 Gt/yr for the RCP 4.5 simulations, and from -591 Gt/yr to -1857 Gt/yr for the RCP 8.5 simulations by 2100. This decrease is characterized by an acceleration after the 2030s, more evident for the RCP 8.5 scenario, and the strongest reductions are simulated in the northern regions under both scenarios. The simulated present-day (1980–1999) runoff ranges from 0.78 mm SLE/yr to 0.86 mm SLE/yr, and at the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) the runoff is projected to increase to 1.25 mm SLE/yr to 1.51 mm SLE/yr (2.36 mm SLE/yr to 2.94mm SLE/yr) under a RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5) scenario. On regional scale, the highest amount of runoff is found in the northern and western basins, and the north-western one presents the largest values at the end of the 21st century, up to 0.68 mm SLE/yr under a RCP 8.5 scenario. Finally, the simulated basal melting produced by one of the two thermo-mechanical ice sheet-ice shelves models exhibits small values compared to the surface meltwater values. Consequently, the basal melting can be neglected in the mass balance computation. The calving, in Greenland, occurs in small embayments along the Greenland margins, which are not properly reproduced in the ice sheet model due to the too low resolution. Consequently, calving has not been accounted for in mass balance calculation due to the technical limitations of the ice sheet models used in this study. it_IT
dc.language.iso en it_IT
dc.publisher Università Ca' Foscari Venezia it_IT
dc.rights © Daniele Peano, 2016 it_IT
dc.title Simulation of Greenland mass balance evolution until 2100 it_IT
dc.title.alternative it_IT
dc.type Doctoral Thesis it_IT Scienza e gestione dei cambiamenti climatici it_IT Dottorato di ricerca it_IT Dipartimento di Economia it_IT
dc.description.academicyear 2014/2015, sessione 2014/2015 it_IT
dc.description.cycle 28 it_IT Barbante, Carlo it_IT
dc.location.shelfmark D001583 it_IT
dc.location Venezia, Archivio Università Ca' Foscari, Tesi Dottorato it_IT
dc.rights.accessrights openAccess it_IT
dc.thesis.matricno 955987 it_IT
dc.format.pagenumber VII, 152 p. : ill. it_IT
dc.description.note Doctor Europaeus it_IT it_IT Masina, Simona it_IT
dc.provenance.upload Daniele Peano (, 2015-11-26 it_IT
dc.provenance.plagiarycheck Florence Colleoni (, 2016-01-19 it_IT

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