Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Distribution: Analyzing the Shift towards More Extreme Short-Duration Rainfall Events over Longer Ones.

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on rainfall distribution have become increasingly evident in recent years, with shifts towards more extreme precipitation events being a notable concern. The implications of these changes are far reaching, impacting various sectors. In particular, effects of the Short-duration extreme rainfall events can lead to floods, soil erosion and waterlogging, posing threats to infrastructure and livelihoods: The rising human and economic costs are concerning for long-term sustainability. Additionally, these changes are testing the effectiveness of traditional methods for predicting rainfall and managing resilience.

This master thesis aims to analyze historical time series of rainfall across varying time scales to investigate the observed changes in precipitation patterns. Specifically, the study focuses on the change of the distribution of rainfalls, and on the transition from longer-duration to more extreme short-duration events.

Methodologically, the research employs various statistical analyses, related to the statistical of extremes branch, on meteorological data sourced from the Trentino Alto Adige region in Italy. This dataset provides unique time series data with detailed temporal resolution.