Cumulative impacts assessment in marine areas : a multi-disciplinary approach setting the scene for the adaptive management of the Adriatic sea

Abstract

Marine areas represent complex and dynamic systems facing increasing threats and degradation due to multiple human and natural pressures. An integrated assessment approach evaluating the combined effects of interactive stressors is required in order to address future marine planning and management. A multi-risk methodology was developed and implemented in the Adriatic sea to evaluate cumulative impacts induced by climate and anthropogenic drivers on key marine targets (seagrasses, aquaculture, protected areas). The analysis is composed of five steps (hazard, exposure, vulnerability, risk and cumulative impact assessment), implemented through integrated tools and methods (i.e. GIS-based maps, MCDA, indicators) including the application of Bayesian Networks to visualize and compare the impact of alternative climate scenarios and management measures. Resulting output represent a decision support tool to drive adaptive management of marine areas under changing environmental conditions.