Saudi Arabia Faced with Modernity: from the Demographic Transition to 'Vision 2030'

Abstract

This dissertation attempts to analyze the current historical conjuncture of Saudi Arabia with its related challenges, both internal and external. In particular, this study aims to explain the main socio-political trends of the Saudi population according to the demographic transition theory and their repercussions on the regime’s stability. Specifically, the demographic transition process is the result of gradually declining birth and death rates among the population thanks to rising literacy rates and diffusion of birth control practices. Consequently, Saudi Arabia, as it is the case in most of the MENA region, is now characterized by a young and educated population that challenges not only the ideological terms of reference within society, but also the broader system of values of their parents’ generation. For this reason Saudi Arabia, as any other country undergoing such a demographic process, is particularly prone to political instability and violent unrest. Thus, in the first chapter, I take into account the concept of demographic transition and the main issues related to the Saudi population growth, such as: high unemployment rates, youth bulge and rapid urbanization. In the second chapter I suggest that the waves of terrorism and nationalism that Saudi Arabia is experiencing are a signal of popular restlessness, in a situation where oil income for the government has been heavily reduced by low oil prices. Finally, in the third chapter, I will examine the possibilities of success of “Vision 2030”, the national plan of economic reform launched on April 2016 by the Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.