The different facets of replacement migration. An empirical contribution to the theoretical debate through a focus on Italy and France.

Abstract

While demographic concerns for the unprecedented low levels of fertility achieved in Europe have become increasingly marked among scholars, many countries in this region have also been experiencing large-scale immigration; as a result, the compensatory role migration can play in this situation has lately become the subject of much debate. Although the theoretical framework of this discussion seems quite sound and unanimous, most of the existing empirical contributions on replacement migration mainly focus on probabilistic statistical projections. Our work aims at linking theory to practice thanks to an in-depth study of the statistics for two countries with different migratory histories and divergent demographic trends, that is to say Italy and France (with a major focus on the regions of Veneto and Île-de-France). We will take into consideration the various dimensions of replacement migration outlined by the theoretical research: the direct changes in the population age structure and the consequent effects on the labour force on the one hand, and the indirect implications on fertility levels due to significant contributions to the total number of births on the other hand. These aspects will be studied in the light of specific characteristics of the foreign-born population, such as the length of the migratory history, the context, the countries of origin, the age structure, the reproductive choices, the educational attainment and the professional integration. This approach will allow us not only to strengthen and contextualize the conceptual premises but also to comment on some surprising empirical findings.