The gravity model has been used extensively to model trade flows among countries with proven succcess, and when applied to tourism flows it have provided even better results. In this paper I propose a Bayesian approach ...

This paper was motivated by the fact that there is an increasing share of government and commercial organizations’ profit from tourists in European countries. The model used to analyze tourist flows considers a city as a ...

In this study I propose a model for the behaviour of the real stock market prices which allows for the existence of speculative bubbles. The bubble is assumed to follow a Markov-switching process with explosive and collapsing ...

Si propone un’analisi sul rischio sistemico europeo, prendendo in considerazione le principali 100 aziende del settore finanziario e le loro relazioni di interdipendenza. Per verificare queste connessioni si procede con ...

In the last few years, cyber risk has attracted increasing attention by researchers, regulators and business operators and has established itself as one of the major emerging risks. The COVID-19 crisis and the massive ...

This study considers the model of Miranda-Agrippino and Rey (2020) implementing the framework of Plagborg-Moller and Wolf (2021), but with various Bayesian configurations. Specifically, we use a Bayesian Structural Vector ...

Decision-makers often consult different experts to build a reliable forecast on some uncertain variable of interest. Combining more opinions and calibrating them to maximise the forecast accuracy is crucial issue treated ...

In this thesis I present the multivariate Autoregressive Gamma process introduced by Le, Singleton and Dai (2010), a model founded on the univariate ARG first introduced in Gourieroux and Jasiak (2006). I discuss its ...