The Italian effort under the EU Effort Sharing Decision: impact assessment of economic crisis and policy framework in the current and expected progress.

Abstract

The European Union has committed itself to become a competitive low carbon economy, being at the forefront in fighting against climate change. The long-term commitments pass through mid-term targets and obligations. The Effort Sharing Decision (Decision No 406/2009/EC) lies at this stage, being a cornerstone of the EU effort in combating climate change in the short-medium term up to 2020. The Decision sets national GHG emission targets for 2020 for end use sectors not covered by the Emission Trading System. A Commission Decision has translated the national targets in annual emission limits. This study addresses the Italian effort towards meeting the national emission target and the annual emission limits. The aim is to assess whether Italy is expected to meet the target based on the current and expected future progress in curbing GHG emissions. Furthermore, the study aims to assess to what extent the evolution of the legislative framework and the detrimental and prolonged effect of the economic downturn contribute on the previous results. The approach used in this research is based on a scenario analysis. The most relevant scenarios delivered at EU and national level are reviewed in depth in the main assumptions and in the GHG emission trends up to 2020. The gap analysis is then carried out assessing the Italian effort and the expected progress in complying with the EU obligations. Next, the comparative analysis allows to assess the impact of the economic and policy variables on the previous results. Finally, the energy decomposition analysis of the transport sector is performed to outline the expected impact up to 2020 of the economic downturn in its first stage and of the policy framework on a topical and highly meaningful sector. These results support and complete the previous outcomes by strengthening the understanding on the effect of the investigated drivers on the development of the energy system. The work demonstrates the crucial role of the economic crisis in supporting the Italian effort, which compensates to a large extent the verified weakness of the policy framework. However, the study highlights that a policy gap is still expected, proving that Italy needs to take on a more robust policy effort in order to meet the national emission target.