A model-based approach to explore the ecosystem services of the Venice lagoon under future management and climate change scenarios.

Abstract

The Venice lagoon is a complex and fragile ecosystem that provides vital ecosystem services (ES) to the local population but faces the impacts of climate change and unsustainable human practices. This study develops a functional model that simulates the dynamics of 13 ES provided by the Venice lagoon. It offers an exploratory view of their potential trajectories under future scenarios, including climate change and possible management strategies. The model adopts a systemic thinking approach and represents ES as emerging from the interactions between the lagoon’s resources, actors, and governance, using E. Ostrom’s social-ecological systems framework as a conceptual basis.

Starting from a previous version of the model, this thesis develops a mathematical formulation in R, in which the dynamics of the considered variables are translated into a system of ordinary differential equations. Local climatic projections are used to define climate change scenarios that consider relative sea level rise and increasing water temperature. A preexisting qualitative survey is used to define future socio-demographic and management scenarios that reflect local citizens’ perspectives.

The outputs are generated as numerical projections of future trends for all the components of the lagoon taken into consideration. This model constitutes a holistic assessment tool that allows to evaluate how ES might be affected by different management strategies that consider both socio-economic and environmental aspects. It can thus contribute to support a management of the lagoon that embraces environmental, social and economic sustainability.