A Strategic Foresight Analysis approach to support Land-Sea spatial planning under climate change

Abstract

This thesis investigates and applies the Strategic Foresight Analysis methodology to the spatial planning of the land-sea interface in the Valencian Community, an area particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The aim is to provide scientific and innovative tools to explore future scenarios, anticipate uncertainties and improve the spatial planning of this complex context. The methodological approach integrates foresight tools such as horizon scanning, megatrend analysis and scenario planning. An innovative aspect of the research was using Generative Artificial Intelligence to calculate the impact weights used in the Cumulative Impact Assessment, investigating the interactions between pressures and impacted natural assets. Stakeholder involvement played a central role in this process. Through questionnaires, interviews and workshops, they were involved in defining the region's specific priorities and challenges, thus ensuring that the methodologies adopted aligned with the needs and perceptions of local communities. The results showed an intensification of cumulative impacts across different scenarios and time horizons, highlighting the variability of environmental responses, and providing a solid basis for further research and the development of sustainable adaptive strategies.