A Parsimonious Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology for the evaluation of climate policies

Abstract

All living species, from people to ecosystems, are vulnerable to climate change. The increasing temperature of our earth is influencing everyone. The European Commission introduced a severe set of policies to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030. This thesis investigates the most practicable policies to reach such an ambitious target. The methodology adopted is based on a multi-criteria decision analysis methodology, particularly a Parsimonious Analytic Hierarchy Process (PAHP), to identify the priorities of alternatives, i.e., the policies introduced by the European Commission, according to a set of criteria. We show how the methodology can help handle complex decisions and how the PAHP can support a broad spectrum of decision-makers in reaching a compromise solution. The practical research that has been conducted results from deep analysis of the policies, followed by the involvement of experts and non-experts to evaluate criteria and alternatives using an innovative approach. The results identified the energy transition through sustainable sources and financial access as the most valuable alternatives to counter the rise in emissions and guide us toward climate neutrality. Furthermore, the methodology is further developed to select the policies with a higher priority after obtaining the ranking.