Game Theory and Diplomatic Effectiveness: A Pathway to Resolving International Conflicts

Abstract

The increasing interconnection and cooperation between states have highlighted the need for a tool that can foster compromises and avoid resorting to violence. While the number of violent international conflicts has been declining, the casualties resulting from these conflicts have been on the rise due to advancements in weapon technology. In this context, international diplomacy has become a crucial resource for minimizing casualties and achieving compromises between states. However, in terms of conflict resolution, diplomacy has exhibited certain weaknesses in recent decades. This work aims to present political game theory as a potential tool for enhancing the effectiveness of diplomacy in these negotiations.

The thesis is divided into four main sections, each analyzing a specific topic. The first chapter focuses on the doctrine of political game theory. After providing a historical overview, it delves into the elements of game theory, with particular attention given to players, strategies, and payoffs. Additionally, four macro-categories of games are presented, along with practical examples to enhance understanding of their functioning. The chapter concludes by presenting various strategies to solve the game models introduced earlier.

The second chapter centers on diplomacy, as it serves as the framework that could benefit from the application of political game theory. The historical development of diplomacy is discussed, spanning from ancient times to the modern era. Certain important concept and principles that characterize international relations but undermine the efficiency of diplomacy are then examined, including the concepts of sovereignty, non-interference, self-determination, the issue of international recognition and the related downsides of multilateralism in diplomacy. The chapter concludes by presenting successful instances of international diplomacy in various fields but also failures, linking these latters with the concepts and principles explained before, with the aim of underlining the need of supportive tool in diplomacy especially when it comes to conflicts.

The third chapter provides an in-depth insight into international conflicts, which, as demonstrated in the previous chapter, pose the greatest difficulties for diplomacy and stand to benefit from a game-theoretic approach. This chapter defines international conflicts and emphasizes their impact on the global arena. It explores the root causes and evolution of conflicts, influenced by various factors. The dynamics of international conflicts are examined, including the role of power, involvement of major and regional nations, impact of non-state actors, and other significant factors. The chapter concludes by presenting challenges in conflict resolution, setting the stage for the fourth and final chapter.

The concluding chapter offers a practical application of political game theory to a real-world event, demonstrating the potential benefits that diplomacy could derive from this analytical approach, which has proven successful in the economic field. But before delving into the practical case some important rules and guidelines on how to structure and create a well-functioning and efficient theoretic model are presented