Firms' Expectations and Uncertainty: evidences from the INVIND questionnaire on the post COVID-19 period

Abstract

Expectations play a pivotal role in a firm's strategic choices, such as investment, staff hiring and the use of production factors. Yet, the mechanisms that drive the formation of such expectations are not yet fully understood, and there is no unanimous consensus on how to measure uncertainty. Thus, the aim of this project is to examine the process of formation of expectations and to suggest some ideas of measures of perceived uncertainty. We will do so by analyzing data from the INVIND survey, a questionnaire conducted annually by the Bank of Italy. Specifically, the intention is to continue the research project conducted at Ca' Foscari University entitled "Firms' Expectations and Uncertainty: Evidence from Micro Data," which already used data from the INVIND questionnaire, by focusing on the years influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic.