Long- and Short-term Influences on Voting Behaviour in Tokyo: a Comparative Analysis of 2005-2021 Lower House Elections

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to identify unique features of citizens’ voting behaviour in Tokyo compared to the whole country, with a focus on the past six House of Representative elections (2005-2021). In order to do so, factors of influence on voting choices and political preferences, both in the long and short term, will be analysed, first at a national level in chapter 3, and subsequently narrowing down the focus to Tokyo Metropolitan Area (23 main districts and surrounding rural area) in chapter 4. Long-term influences comprise sociological factors such as type of occupation, education, age group, dwelling area, social network effects, intended as influence of local organizations and communities on individuals. Short-term influences mainly include voters’ attitude towards political issues, party and candidate’s image, and media, mainly television, newspapers and Internet platforms. For the national level, surveys conducted by the Association for Promoting Clean Elections (akarui senkyo suishin kyōkai) will serve as the main source of data. In analysing Tokyo’s case, large use will be made of surveys conducted by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government Election Administration Commission (tōkyō-to senkyo kanri iinkai).