The Israeli-Saudi rapprochement through the Balance of Threat Theory.

Abstract

Since the 2010s, the Middle East was marked by a back-channel rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Through the use of the balance of threat theory, this study identifies the causes of the détente at different levels of analysis, questioning the possibility of future normalized relations. The study assumes that the common threat posed by Iran was the main cause of détente. Yet, despite the advantages of normalizing relations, the Palestinian cause is believed to be the main cause preventing it. The balance of threat theory by S. M. Walt provides the main theoretical framework to the study, it assumes that countries join alliances to counterbalance common security threats. At the international level, the US role is analysed as a variable influencing Israeli-Saudi relations, incentivised by the MESA, and the Deal of the Century; while the US retrenchment unveiled the necessity to quest further allies. At the regional level, the analysis focuses on the contribute regional dynamics provided to the détente, as the Abraham Accords. Particular attention is posed on the Iranian power, on its military capabilities, and its funding minority groups in the region to expand its influence. Moreover, national reasons in favour of the détente are further addressed. The rapprochement is also a response to internal economic and military necessities of nations and leaders. Eventually, the Iranian power is the main security threat to be counterbalanced to both states. Yet, normalized relations would cause a hostile public opinion, enhancing Iran’s position as defender of Palestinian interests. Therefore, both Israel and Saudi Arabia will keep enjoying the advantages of normalized relations while not suffering the backlashes normalization would imply.