The Arctic in the center of geopolitics.

Abstract

This thesis focuses on geopolitics in the Arctic. It examines international interests in the Arctic and discusses the growing interest and development of governance and cooperation in the region. The thesis aims to study the consequences of this growing interest of the parties and geopolitics in the Arctic, by studying not only the behavior of states, but also international organizations in the region. Based on recent trends, it can be seen that the Arctic Council is not fully coping with all the changes in the Arctic. The key reason for the growing interest is the melting of ice, which facilitates the extraction of oil and gas, as well as alternative sea shipping routes. The aim is to provide an overview of current and possible future events from the point of view of theories of international relations and to make an assumption about the likelihood of a military conflict in the region. In the Arctic, there are some contradictions that push the question of the future of the region. To assess the situation in the Arctic, the theories of international relations were used - Realism, Neorealism, Liberalism and Institutional Liberalism. In my thesis I attempt to give answers on three research questions: How the Arctic is seen in theoretical prism? Here I tried to analyze the region from the point view of international relations theories and the region was considered from the prism of realism, neorealism,liberalism and neoliberal institutionalism. The data collected showed that there are strong features of liberalism in international Arctic politics, since the development of relations is based on cooperation.Neorealism theory is also good for explaining the behavior of countries in the region,but this alone is not enough. Is a military conflict possible?Another goal is to determine the likelihood of military conflicts in the region through analysis.During the study it was revealed that there are some factors in the region that can create tension: the presence of controversial issues about the boundaries of the shelf zones,disputes over the sovereignty of sea routes,and militarization of the region.Despite that fact that theoretically the conditions for an Arctic conflict exist,most experts believe that the likelihood of a conflict is extremely small.Therefore,it was concluded that the start of a major war in the region is rather unlikely. What are challenges and opportunities of the region? I will try to analyze which scenarios will be more likely to become the future of the Arctic. Seven scenarios: Norway and the Arctic, China and the Arctic, Arctic today, USA and the Arctic, Russia and the Arctic, Canada and the Arctic, Denmark and the Arctic. According to the analysis, the countries are interested in cooperation, but they act in their own interests in the region, which is contradiction.The influence of the states in the Arctic depends on their military and economic capabilities. Of the seven scenarios presented, four are identified as the most probable:The Arctic region today,The Arctic and the United States,The Arctic and Norway and The Arctic and China.The Arctic and the US scenario is considered one of the most likely as the region becomes international and the US seeks to control the sea routes.The Arctic today scenario is also considered one of the most likely,since the competition and the desire for influence in the region will not decrease. Today the region is dominated by Russia and if it gets the areas it claims in the Arctic, NATO's influence will weaken.The most likely scenarios were Arctic and Norway and China and the Arctic.China is actively cooperating in the region with the Arctic countries,as well as building its own fleet; interested in developing the region and is actively developing cooperation with Norway and Russia.The Arctic and Norway scenario is possible if the UN and NATO support Norway on the Svalbard issue.Given that the UN supports Norway in expanding its territories,this scenario can be real