Assessing the impact of sea-level rise in the coast of Venice: a multi-risk approach supporting climate adaptation and environmental risk management

Abstract

Coastal zones are unique and fragile environments, shaped by complex interactions amongst physical, ecological and socio-economic factors at the land-sea interface. They are vulnerable both to acute (extreme) and to chronic (gradual) hazards related to climate variability and change. The main threats are due to rising sea levels, extreme waves and storm surges, which can cause land loss, coastal erosion and inundation. Moreover, changes in physical and biogeochemical ocean parameters (turbidity, temperature, salinity, pH etc.) can affect water quality, coastal biodiversity and ecosystems. Firstly, a critical review of state-of-the-art related to the use of BN for the analysis of risks induced by multiple climate related hazards and changing exposure and vulnerability patterns in flood-prone areas was performed. Then, a novel multi-risk framework and methodological approach based on complex system analysis and Geographic Information Systems tools was developed and applied in the coastal area of the city of Venice. The results of the analysis, including hazard, exposure and vulnerability indicators, allowed to identify current and future coastal risk scenarios, supporting local authorities in developing climate change adaptation and environmental risk management plans.