Abstract:
Speaking about Brexit and food, the most important place belongs to fisheries.
Brexit gives rise to a major challenge to the stability of European fisheries management.
I perform my analysis by exploring the dynamics on a sample of 39 UK SMEs across 1 industry. Although, since Brexit is having different impact for different industries and different regions, I explore its impact at company level with respect to previous year performance and currently with Brexit under different assumptions.
In order to explore the SMEs capability and the effect on the profitability of the companies in the Fisheries sector, I develop a simple but versatile forecasting model based on the firm EBITDA, in which sales shock is the key input. My model builds on the shock that firms face based on the expected impact of the deal on their sales and then see how it affects the capability of the firms to generate positive EBITDA.
My estimations are based on data up to 2020 in order to rely on a large dataset of 39 observations. Then, I re-estimate the three scenarios of shock using 2020 data ensuring full data availability which reduced the sample size to 19 companies.
