On the role of oil in the growth process of the Arab Gulf

Abstract

The thesis takes into consideration three of the main countries which are part of the Arab Gulf: United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The aim of my thesis is to prove that trade openness is the main determinant of economic growth, that is to say that the higher is the trade openness, the higher is the economic growth. This is proved thanks to the construction of a regression model which analyses the relationship between the most relevant indicators of economic growth of each of the countries under study. The structure of my thesis follows these steps: the description of the countries under study, the recognition of the most relevant indicators to explain the empirical model, the construction of the model, the observation of the analysis of the results of the model, final evaluations and some forecasts about countries. First chapter: description of the countries, why they are interrelated (GCC), most recent history compared with growth trend, relevant indicators that determine economic growth (macroeconomic overview). Second chapter: construction of the regression model. Third chapter: analysis of results. Fourth chapter: final considerations about work, the future goals and programs of each country study.