Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity and Food Security Resulting in Poverty in India

Abstract

“Tackling Climate Change is closely linked to poverty alleviation and economic development; I would call them different sides of the same coin.” - Paul Polman, CEO, Unilever

Climate change has been considered to have catastrophic effects on planet Earth. It has become a major barrier to developing economies, like India where agriculture accounts for 55 per cent of its total working population (Registrar General 2013) and constitutes about 14.1 per cent of its GDP (GoI, 2013). Moreover, due to the alteration in climate, crop productivity is being affected adversely resulting in food and livelihood security issues. This study is based on state level data of 4 major seasonal Indian crops- Rice, Wheat, Cotton, Sugarcane which comprise of Food and Cash crops for the time span of 2004 to 2013. 7 agriculturally intensive states with varied climatic conditions have been taken into consideration for the study. States under tropical zones include West Bengal, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, while the subtropical regions are Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. This thesis makes an attempt to analyze the impact of climate change on Indian Agriculture and food security. It also examines the implications of climate change on food security and evaluates the multiple benefits of mitigation and adaptation. Cobb Douglas production function will be incorporated in this model to simulate this impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Majority of the crops taken into consideration are expected to be adversely affected by the future climatic conditions. Local adaptation practices have also been scrutinized, highlighting the role of institutional support, national adaptation strategies and resilience at different scales.